Home Page → Commentary → 10 December 2016 (Trump Transition Team Statement)

How do You Interpret the Trump Transition Team Statement?

In their response to the CIA report about Russia’s possible involvement in the US Election of 2016, the Trump transition team issued a statement which read, in part:

“The election ended a long time ago in one of the biggest Electoral College victories in history.”

I don’t know how you interpret it, but I call bullshit. No, not whether one month is a “long time ago,” but whether it is truly one of the biggest Electoral College victories in history. Let’s look at the electoral votes, ranked by number of votes. These are the elections from 1804 onward, and the data comes from the National Archives site, so, please don’t accuse me of taking fake data from some ultra-left-wing liberal web site.

Rank	Year	Winner	Votes	Out of
1	1984	Ronald Reagan [R]	525	538
2	1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	523	531
3	1972	Richard M. Nixon [R]	520	538
4	1980	Ronald Reagan [R]	489	538
5	1964	Lyndon B. Johnson [D]	486	538
6	1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	472	531
7	1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower [R]	457	531
8	1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	449	531
9	1928	Herbert C. Hoover [R]	444	531
10	1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower [R]	442	531
11	1912	Woodrow Wilson [D]	435	531
12	1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	432	531
13	1988	George Bush [R]	426	538
14	1920	Warren G. Harding [R]	404	531
15	1924	Calvin Coolidge [R]	382	531
16	1996	William J. Clinton [D]	379	538
17	1992	William J. Clinton [D]	370	538
18	1904	Theodore Roosevelt [R]	336	476
19	2012	Barack Obama [D]	332	538
20	1908	William H. Taft [R]	321	483
21	2016	Donald J. Trump [R]	306	538
22	1948	Harry S. Truman [D]	303	531
23	1960	John F. Kennedy [D]	303	537
24	1968	Richard M. Nixon [R]	301	538
25	1976	Jimmy Carter [D]	297	538
26	1900	William McKinley [R]	292	447
27	1872	Ulysses S. Grant [R]	286	352
28	2004	George W. Bush [R]	286	538
29	2008	Barack Obama [D]	286	538
30	1892	Grover Cleveland [D]	277	444
31	1916	Woodrow Wilson [D]	277	531
32	1896	William McKinley [R]	271	447
33	2000	George W. Bush [R]	271	538
34	1852	Franklin Pierce [D]	254	296
35	1840	William Henry Harrison [W]	234	294
36	1888	Benjamin Harrison [R]	233	401
37	1820	James Monroe [D-R]	231	235
38	1832	Andrew Jackson [D]	219	286
39	1884	Grover Cleveland [D]	219	401
40	1868	Ulysses S. Grant [R]	214	294
41	1880	James Garfield [R]	214	369
42	1864	Abraham Lincoln [R]	212	233
43	1876	Rutherford B. Hayes [R]	185	369
44	1816	James Monroe [D-R]	183	217
45	1860	Abraham Lincoln [R]	180	303
46	1828	Andrew Jackson [D]	178	261
47	1856	James Buchanan [D]	174	296
48	1836	Martin Van Buren [D]	170	294
49	1844	James K. Polk [D]	170	275
50	1848	Zachary Taylor [W]	163	290
51	1804	Thomas Jefferson [D-R]	162	176
52	1812	James Madison [D-R]	128	217
53	1808	James Madison [D-R]	122	175
54	1824	John Quincy Adams [Coalition]	84	261

As President-elect Trump might say, “Impressive! Historic!” But...only if you are looking at absolute number of votes. Take a look at the line with rank 34 (Franklin Pierce in 1852). He got almost all of the votes, but he couldn’t have gotten President-elect Trump’s 306 votes—because there were only 296 electoral votes possible!

So maybe, just maybe, absolute number of electoral votes is not the best way to rank the results. How about using the percentage of the total electoral vote that the winner got? That compensates for the problem of having differing numbers of electoral votes in different years (as the country’s population grew). Let’s look at the table again, ranked by percentage.

Rank	Year	Winner	Votes	Out of	Percent
1	1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	523	531	98.5%
2	1820	James Monroe [D-R]	231	235	98.3%
3	1984	Ronald Reagan [R]	525	538	97.6%
4	1972	Richard M. Nixon [R]	520	538	96.7%
5	1804	Thomas Jefferson [D-R]	162	176	92.0%
6	1864	Abraham Lincoln [R]	212	233	91.0%
7	1980	Ronald Reagan [R]	489	538	90.9%
8	1964	Lyndon B. Johnson [D]	486	538	90.3%
9	1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	472	531	88.9%
10	1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower [R]	457	531	86.1%
11	1852	Franklin Pierce [D]	254	296	85.8%
12	1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	449	531	84.6%
13	1816	James Monroe [D-R]	183	217	84.3%
14	1928	Herbert C. Hoover [R]	444	531	83.6%
15	1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower [R]	442	531	83.2%
16	1912	Woodrow Wilson [D]	435	531	81.9%
17	1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt [D]	432	531	81.4%
18	1872	Ulysses S. Grant [R]	286	352	81.2%
19	1840	William Henry Harrison [W]	234	294	79.6%
20	1988	George Bush [R]	426	538	79.2%
21	1832	Andrew Jackson [D]	219	286	76.6%
22	1920	Warren G. Harding [R]	404	531	76.1%
23	1868	Ulysses S. Grant [R]	214	294	72.8%
24	1924	Calvin Coolidge [R]	382	531	71.9%
25	1904	Theodore Roosevelt [R]	336	476	70.6%
26	1996	William J. Clinton [D]	379	538	70.4%
27	1808	James Madison [D-R]	122	175	69.7%
28	1992	William J. Clinton [D]	370	538	68.8%
29	1828	Andrew Jackson [D]	178	261	68.2%
30	1908	William H. Taft [R]	321	483	66.5%
31	1900	William McKinley [R]	292	447	65.3%
32	1892	Grover Cleveland [D]	277	444	62.4%
33	1844	James K. Polk [D]	170	275	61.8%
34	2012	Barack Obama [D]	332	538	61.7%
35	1896	William McKinley [R]	271	447	60.6%
36	1860	Abraham Lincoln [R]	180	303	59.4%
37	1812	James Madison [D-R]	128	217	59.0%
38	1856	James Buchanan [D]	174	296	58.8%
39	1888	Benjamin Harrison [R]	233	401	58.1%
40	1880	James Garfield [R]	214	369	58.0%
41	1836	Martin Van Buren [D]	170	294	57.8%
42	1948	Harry S. Truman [D]	303	531	57.1%
43	2016	Donald J. Trump [R]	306	538	56.9%
44	1960	John F. Kennedy [D]	303	537	56.4%
45	1848	Zachary Taylor [W]	163	290	56.2%
46	1968	Richard M. Nixon [R]	301	538	55.9%
47	1976	Jimmy Carter [D]	297	538	55.2%
48	1884	Grover Cleveland [D]	219	401	54.6%
49	2004	George W. Bush [R]	286	538	53.2%
50	2008	Barack Obama [D]	286	538	53.2%
51	1916	Woodrow Wilson [D]	277	531	52.2%
52	2000	George W. Bush [R]	271	538	50.4%
53	1876	Rutherford B. Hayes [R]	185	369	50.1%
54	1824	John Quincy Adams [Coalition]	84	261	32.2%

Not so impressive or historic any more, is it? It’s a lot closer to the bottom of the list than the top. So, Trump voters, how are you going to interpret the data?

As absolute numbers, which give President-elect Trump the high placement.
As percentages, which are a more accurate view of the data.
It doesn’t matter. If President-elect Trump’s team says it’s “one of the biggest Electoral College victories in history,” then it must be so.

The cynic in me suspects you’re going to go for door number three.

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